Electoral Map '08 (3.0)

My new electoral map projection for November. I have Michigan going to McCain in large part due to the fact that I believe he will name Mitt Romney as his running mate.

Map used can be found on USAToday.com

Final Tally: Obama - 282; McCain - 256

McCain Should Announce VP Pick

It's no secret that John McCain will be struggling to capture the attention of the media with Barack Obama heading overseas. His supporters will argue that he already doesn't get treated well enough in the media.

One of the few areas where John McCain has a considerable edge over Obama is in foreign policy expertise. Simply put, John McCain cannot risk having some of that ground jeopardized when people see Barack Obama traveling abroad with Chuck Hagel and Jack Reed.

There is no better way for McCain to steal the spotlight with Obama overseas then to name his vice-presidential pick, and no I do not mean Dwight Schrute.

Mitt Romney is emerging as the VP frontrunner, and naming him as the VP now verses naming him in early to mid-August would have little repercussions. For someone who has been supporting Barack Obama since the primaries began, I respect Romney for his economic background. I'm not saying I'm going to go for a McCain-Romney ticket, but out of all McCain's potential choices Romney is someone who appeals to me. It would be extremely difficult to vote for anybody who doesn't support stem cell research.

Additionally, by naming someone like Romney in particular for vice president while Obama is overseas, it could shift the focus back home to the economy. Barack Obama has a lot of credentials on his resume, but he can't say that he was CEO of the Winter Olympic Games back in 2002. I'll be the first to say Romney is extremely skilled when discussing the economy, something that could come back to haunt the Democrats in debates.

McCain has always been known as a maverick, and I have a feeling he has something up his sleeve for when Barack Obama grabs the media attention when he goes overseas. The GOP simply isn't going to allow it to be Obama's week as he explores our standing in the world. I have a feeling that a VP pick is coming, and you could expect the GOP portraying Obama as someone who is out of touch with most Americans. Obama could look bad if McCain tours our country with Romney about the economy while Obama is giving a speech in Germany.

Veep List

If you're familiar with the blog, then you know I've been updating my preference for Barack Obama's VP choice every two weeks. My last list was made on June 23, so I've been running a little behind on the updates. Except this time, I'm cutting my list down to five as the race for VP appears to be drawling to a close.

5. Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska -- Party unity? How about unifying the country? Adding a Republican to the ticket would be historic, and forever put Obama in the history books. However, Hagel falls three places from the previous rankings because I think the chances of Obama picking him are diminishing. In most of the polls that I look at, Obama has a comfortable lead at this point. I don't think he will try anything radical, like picking a Republican, at this point. If it were the other way around, with John McCain at a comfortable advantage, then now we're talking.

4. Senator Hillary Clinton of New York -- The more talk there is about Hillary Clinton joining Obama on the ticket, the more I'm beginning to think it will happen. Obama has made a lot of progress with attracting Clinton voters. However, what better way to get them all on board but by adding Clinton herself to the ticket. She would guarantee the election for Obama.

3. Retired Army General Wesley Clark -- Clark already has made the news recently for what he said about John McCain. He may be interested in joining Barack Obama's ticket, and if so he would instantly boost its credibility in terms of foreign policy. He's popular within the Democratic party, and he would probably secure the Democratic base for which Obama can build upon.

2. Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana -- This is Bayh's first time cracking the VP list, and he probably should've been part of it a long time ago. I was surprised that he would be interested in being Obama's VP, after supporting Hillary Clinton throughout the primary season. I love his position in terms of economic affairs, leaning more toward the center and one can even argue he leans a little to the right. He turns Indiana, a state leaning red, into a blue state for November as he was a very successful governor of the state from 1989-1997. He attracts centrist Democrats to the ticket, and appeals to many Republicans. He doesn't necessarily bring the foreign policy experience that Biden, but again the economy will be right up there along with foreign policy.

1. Senator Joe Biden of Delaware -- He has been at the top of my list ever since I started making them. I'd be extremely happy with Biden as VP, or our next Secretary of State in an Obama administration. He would accept the position, and Biden is a guy I have liked ever since following politics. His fiery presence instantly gives the administration some credibility on foreign policy.

Edited July 17, had Bayh at the top for a bit and then put Biden right back up there.

Political Market

CNN just scored some major points as my favorite website to follow politics with, as if they already weren't at the top. The news network created, through Inkling, the "Political Market", where below I've used their words to describe how it works:

1. Login or sign up to trade
2. Begin with $5,000 in CNN virtual dollars
3. Start trading in a variety of election markets

They have found a way to blend two of my strongest interests in politics and economics. There are ways you can invest "CNN virtual dollars" into your projected VP pick. I even saw a market about investing in what direction Ohio will swing in November.

I've set the blog post up so when you click on the title, it brings you right to the Political Market homepage.

That's all for now, I have to figure out where to invest my 5,000 CNN virtual dollars. Have a good weekend if I don't find time to post something from now until Monday.

New Obama Ad Titled "Dignity"

I've decided to share my reaction Barack Obama's new ad titled "Dignity", shown below.

I love the ad, along with Obama's recent efforts to appeal to more centrist Democrats like myself. There's no doubt the GOP is going to try and put the "he's too liberal" label on Obama the same way they applied it to Kerry in 2004. It's best to get this out there before McCain and the GOP come out swinging.

Passing a law to "move people from welfare to work" will without a doubt leave an impression on a lot of people including myself. Obama should try to make his American story well known before election day. He's what America stands for by working one's way up the ladder in society through hard work.

It also should be noted that the ad is being aired in traditional Republican states like Alaska, Colorado, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, North Carolina, and Virginia amongst others.

Obama should keep the message he portrays in the ad, and pairing this with ending the war in Iraq will surely make him a great leader.

Cross Clark Off the VP List?

Did Wesley Clark cross himself off Obama's VP list after making controversial comments pertaining to John McCain's qualifications to become president? It's obvious Obama doesn't want to bring this kind of partisan tone into the election, and he made that clear by rejecting Clark's statement.

People can argue if McCain's military service leaves him qualified to become president, but one thing is for sure; Obama doesn't want to show he's an everyday politician by using the kind of bitter language Clark used against McCain. Now I cannot speak on Obama's behalf, but I think Clark made things a bit easier for Obama when he ultimately decides on a VP.

It's too bad that Obama probably won't select Clark because of this incident. Clark would make a great VP, and him hitting McCain on his military record might have actually helped Obama in the long run.

Obama's lack of experience will be the number one issue Republicans will attack him on. There would be no better way to counter this problem by getting somebody, particularly someone with military experience like Clark, to say McCain isn't exactly overqualified to become president either.

Obviously it's a fine line to walk to attack somebody's military background, especially with the history Democrats have when dealing with veterans. If the Democrats are going to enter this election attacking McCain on his military record, then they have to do so using an experienced veteran like Clark.

In my mind, Obama isn't happy about this incident and will not pick Clark because of it. However, it doesn't necessarily mean it would be a bad idea because of this particular incident. If anybody could manage to less the impact of the GOP attacking Obama on experience, while adding foreign policy experience, then you have to at least consider him/her. With that being said, hopefully Obama will still consider Clark as a potential VP pick.

"It's the economy, stupid"

This phrase has as much relevance now as it did 16 years ago. 

Before I begin, I would like to take some time to reflect back on the years President Clinton was in office. These were great years for America. The economy was flourishing, we were at peace, and I had tremendous respect for Clinton's shift toward the center of the political spectrum.

Those years are over now. While Barack Obama doesn't necessarily support the moderate Democrat message, he still is the best candidate to get our country back on the tracks President Clinton laid for us and then some. 

Barack Obama faces an increasingly difficult challenge of attracting Clinton voters while still maintaining his message of a change candidate. What better way to affiliate Obama with the Clinton's, yet separate enough, than to adopt Clinton's winning campaign strategy. 

However, there are risks to using this strategy. For starters, Obama should use caution with turning the spotlight on the economy if McCain puts Mitt Romney on the ticket. Romney is certainly one of the more knowledgeable politicians when it comes to the economy, and we would need to turn most of our attention toward the war at that point. It would be risky to enter a VP debate with say Wesley Clark for example, and have most of the attention turned toward the economy. It could potentially off-set the advantage of having a foreign-policy expert on the ticket.

It's becoming more likely that McCain will opt for some flare when determining the VP pick, as most are concerned with his age. With that being said, turning a bulk of the attention toward the economy would be an excellent idea.  

While it would be risky to focus on the economy if McCain opts for Romney as a VP, it still needs to be done. Obama needs to either fit the economy in with the war, or focus primarily on the economy. Obama has to take advantage of McCain's lack of knowledge concerning the economy. People, for whatever reason, disagree on the war, but nobody can tell you the economy isn't important. 

For Obama supporters who are concerned about the thought of Mitt Romney after what I just said, don't be. Obama should still go for someone with foreign policy expertise as his VP. Chuck Hagel, Sam Nunn, Jim Webb, or Joe Biden should still be toward the top of Obama's VP list. Under the assumption that McCain's selects Romney as a VP (pure speculation), anyone of those candidates would be capable of turning an economy discussion into a war discussion during a debate. The cost of the war would be able to hit somebody like Romney hard when talking about the economy, and it would force the debate to turn to a discussion about a never ending war. Anyone of the potential "foreign-policy" candidates would be able to hold their own when debating over the economy. 

To conclude, we can't lose when turning the attention toward the economy because we got numbers on our side. Unemployment is up, and the stock market is struggling to say the least. There's no question Obama could hammer McCain in debates on the economy, and I'm confident that any VP foreign policy pick would be able to hold his/her own during VP debates on the economy.